Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability Reports on August Revenue

The numbers are contained in CGFA’s “Monthly Briefing” for August 2022. They reflect continued State revenue growth for the month. In August, total general funds were up by more than $430 million over the comparable previous month, the pandemic-affected August 2021. As in previous months of 2022, the overall revenue growth was driven by higher receipts in the State’s two key funds drivers, the income tax (up $181 million) and sales tax (up $103 million). The State also received an August 2022 payment of $180 million in one-time federal aid, described as “reimbursement for essential government services” provided by the State during the pandemic.

CGFA economists and statisticians are constantly looking at the State’s economy with the goal of projecting future trends in tax revenues, particularly income and sales taxes. Pressures on the State’s economy, and its taxpayers, are likely to result in lower tax revenues down the road. In a report to General Assembly members, “Economy: FY 2022 Employment Data,” contained within the Monthly Briefing, CGFA chief economist Benjamin L. Varner discerned significant, and growing, inflationary pressures on Illinois taxpayers and their households. While prices for many goods have skyrocketed, wages in Illinois are not rising nearly as fast. The average weekly wage of an employed Illinoisan rose only 4.1% during the course of FY22, the fiscal year that ended on June 30, 2022. The inflation-affected costs of many goods needed by Illinois residents, including food and housing, increased by much higher percentages.